The Atlanta Braves are preparing for one of the most important series on their schedule, and a late adjustment to the pitching rotation could have a significant impact on how the team approaches its four-game showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies.
With the National League East race entering a critical stage of the season, every game between Atlanta and Philadelphia carries considerable weight. The two clubs remain firmly involved in the division picture, meaning the upcoming series in Philadelphia has the potential to alter the standings and perhaps influence the direction of the race heading into the final weeks.
The Braves will enter the matchup with some momentum after responding to a pair of disappointing losses with a dominant victory over the Washington Nationals. Atlanta shut out Washington 9-0 on Wednesday, getting an impressive performance from its pitching staff and a historic offensive contribution from Ronald Acuña Jr. (Reuters)
Philadelphia, meanwhile, had been one of the hottest teams in baseball. The Phillies put together an outstanding August, going 21-7 during the month, while also winning six consecutive games before Arizona handed them a 1-0 loss on Wednesday. (Reuters)
That combination makes the upcoming four-game set especially important.
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Originally, Atlanta’s pitching plans appeared to be set for the series. However, circumstances surrounding Wednesday’s game against Washington have given the Braves an opportunity to make an adjustment.
Instead of following the previously expected plan, Atlanta is now expected to use Grant Holmes on Monday.
That decision could prove to be an important one.
Atlanta Adjusts Its Rotation
The original pitching arrangement called for a fascinating collection of matchups throughout the series.
Chris Sale was expected to open the series for Atlanta against Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez. The second game was projected to feature Zack Wheeler against Martin Pérez, while Sunday’s matchup was expected to see Aaron Nola face Tyler Mahle. The series finale on Labor Day was initially lined up to feature Jesús Luzardo against Bryce Elder.
Those plans, however, changed following Wednesday’s game in Washington.
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Holmes had been scheduled to pitch against the Nationals, and the right-hander delivered an extremely efficient performance before the weather intervened. He completed three perfect innings, striking out one batter and requiring only 26 pitches, 16 of which were strikes. (CBS Sports)
A lengthy rain delay ultimately prevented Holmes from continuing.
Rather than allowing those three innings to effectively end his week, Atlanta can now take advantage of the situation by moving him into Monday’s rotation spot.
Braves reporter Mark Bowman reported that Holmes would now make the start Monday.
It is a logical move considering how little work Holmes actually received Wednesday. The right-hander was barely able to get into a rhythm before the weather interruption ended his afternoon.
The decision also gives Atlanta another starting option at a particularly important moment.
Holmes Has Been Reliable
The argument for Holmes is not based solely on what happened against Washington.
His recent performance has given the Braves plenty of reason to trust him.
According to CBS Sports, Holmes entered Wednesday’s outing having pitched particularly well over the previous several weeks. Since the beginning of August, he had posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 29.2 innings, while recording 17 strikeouts against 10 walks. He had also gone 3-1 during that stretch. (CBS Sports)
Those numbers are significant because Atlanta needs dependable pitching during the final portion of the regular season.
A starter does not necessarily need to dominate every opponent to be valuable at this point of the year. Consistency, pitch efficiency and the ability to prevent innings from getting out of control can be just as important.
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Holmes has demonstrated those qualities recently.
His performance against Washington was another example.
Although three innings are obviously not enough to evaluate an entire start, Holmes did exactly what Atlanta needed before the rain arrived. He faced the minimum number of hitters, allowed no hits or walks and threw 16 strikes in 26 pitches. (CBS Sports)
Had the weather not interrupted the contest, he could have continued building on what was shaping up to be an exceptional outing.
Instead, Atlanta used Elieser Hernández in relief, and the Braves eventually completed a 9-0 victory. (Reuters)
The shortened appearance created an unusual situation for the Braves, but it also opened the door for the club to use Holmes again sooner than originally anticipated.
Why the Decision Matters
The timing of the change is what makes it particularly interesting.
Atlanta is not simply rearranging its rotation during a meaningless September stretch. The Braves are preparing to face a direct division rival with the postseason picture becoming increasingly important.
Philadelphia has already demonstrated that it can put together extended winning streaks, and the Phillies’ 21-7 August showed just how quickly they can gain ground.
Even though Arizona stopped Philadelphia’s six-game winning streak on Wednesday, the Phillies remain a dangerous opponent. They also demonstrated throughout August that they can play at an extremely high level for extended stretches. (Reuters)
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That means Atlanta cannot afford to approach this series casually.
The Braves need their best available pitching options.
Holmes currently looks like one of those options.
Atlanta has several experienced pitchers capable of handling important games, but the club has also experienced inconsistency in its rotation. That makes every dependable start increasingly valuable.
If Holmes can provide Atlanta with five or six strong innings on Monday, the decision to alter the rotation could look even more important in retrospect.
Elder’s Recent Struggles Make the Move More Understandable
One of the biggest reasons the Holmes decision makes sense is the uncertainty surrounding Bryce Elder.
Elder has shown flashes of being a quality starter, but his performances have been inconsistent. That inconsistency becomes more concerning when the opponent is a team as talented as Philadelphia.
Atlanta does not necessarily need to remove Elder from its plans altogether. However, giving Holmes the opportunity to take the mound in an important game provides the Braves with another option while potentially taking some pressure off Elder.
Elder’s recent outing against the San Francisco Giants did little to strengthen the case for keeping the original plan intact.
When a team is preparing for a series with enormous division implications, managers and front-office personnel have to evaluate current form rather than simply follow a predetermined schedule.
That is particularly true in September.
The goal is not merely to preserve the rotation as it was originally designed. The goal is to maximize the team’s chances of winning.
If Holmes is pitching better than Elder at the moment, there is a strong argument for giving Holmes the opportunity.
Philadelphia Will Present a Major Challenge
Of course, changing the starter does not make the series any easier.
The Phillies have been one of the better teams in the National League throughout the season, and their recent run illustrates the quality of their roster.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff includes Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez and Luzardo, giving the club plenty of high-level arms capable of controlling games.
The Braves therefore cannot afford to depend solely on their pitching.
Atlanta’s offense will have to produce.
The Braves showed what their lineup can do Wednesday against Washington, exploding for nine runs in a shutout victory. Sean Murphy hit a three-run homer and Ronald Acuña Jr. also delivered a three-run shot, while Acuña reached another historic milestone by becoming the fastest player in major league history to reach 200 home runs and 200 stolen bases. (Reuters)
That type of offensive production would obviously be welcomed against Philadelphia.
Atlanta does not necessarily need to score nine runs every night, but the offense must provide enough support for its starters.
Against a strong Phillies rotation, early scoring could become especially important.
If Atlanta can force Philadelphia’s pitchers into high-leverage situations early in games, the Braves could potentially put themselves in position to win close contests.
The Importance of the Series Goes Beyond One Game
It would be easy to focus exclusively on the Holmes decision, but the larger issue is the four-game series itself.
The Braves and Phillies are competing for the same division prize, so every head-to-head game has a double effect.
When Atlanta wins, the Braves gain a game in the standings while simultaneously preventing Philadelphia from gaining one.
That makes a series victory extremely valuable.
But even a split could be meaningful.
If the Braves manage to win two of the four games, Philadelphia would not gain ground during the series. Depending on the standings entering the matchup, that could be almost as important as winning the series outright.
Atlanta’s primary objective should therefore be to avoid allowing Philadelphia to take control of the division race.
The Braves do not necessarily have to sweep.
They simply need to come away from Philadelphia in a position that preserves their advantage and keeps pressure on the Phillies.
A split would accomplish part of that objective.
A series victory would be even better.
Holmes Gives Atlanta Another Weapon
Holmes’ value to Atlanta extends beyond one start.
The right-hander has been a useful piece of the pitching staff because he has demonstrated an ability to handle a substantial workload while keeping his team competitive.
Entering the Philadelphia series, Baseball-Reference listed Holmes with a 3.71 ERA over 128.2 innings. His performance profile has also been relatively balanced against right- and left-handed hitters. (Baseball Reference)
Those numbers help explain why Atlanta would be comfortable giving him another start on short notice.
There is always some risk when changing a rotation unexpectedly.
However, Holmes’ three-inning workload Wednesday was light enough that the move does not appear particularly dangerous from a workload standpoint.
Instead, it allows the Braves to use a pitcher who was already prepared to work and who had just demonstrated excellent command and efficiency.
That could be particularly valuable against Philadelphia.
Atlanta Needs Stability Down the Stretch
The Braves have reached the point of the season where every component of the roster must become more reliable.
There is no time for extended periods of inconsistency.
The offense must produce.
The defense must execute.
The bullpen must protect leads.
And the rotation must give the team opportunities to win.
That last part may be the most important.
When a team enters a crucial division series, starting pitching often determines how aggressively the manager can use the bullpen and how much pressure is placed on the offense.
A strong starting performance can completely change the dynamic of a game.
Holmes has recently shown that he can provide that type of stability.
His 2.73 ERA over 29.2 innings since the start of August is particularly encouraging. (CBS Sports)
There is no guarantee that his success will continue against Philadelphia, but his recent form gives Atlanta a legitimate reason to believe he can handle the challenge.
The Braves’ Bigger Goal
Ultimately, this decision is about more than Holmes versus Elder.
It is about Atlanta putting itself in the best possible position to navigate one of the most consequential series of its season.
The Braves have already shown that they can respond after difficult losses.
They lost to San Francisco and then dropped the opening game against Washington before bouncing back with a dominant 9-0 victory over the Nationals. The win ended their two-game skid and came at an important time, particularly with Philadelphia entering the series after its own recent run of success. (Reuters)
Now the Braves have to carry that momentum into Philadelphia.
That will require more than one good performance.
They need their starting pitchers to establish the tone, and Holmes could now play an unexpected role in that plan.
If the right-hander continues pitching the way he has over the past month, Atlanta may have made exactly the right adjustment.
A Split Could Still Be Valuable
The Braves should obviously enter the series hoping to win as many games as possible.
A sweep would give Atlanta a major advantage.
A three-game winning performance would also put considerable pressure on Philadelphia.
But there is another outcome that should not be overlooked.
A 2-2 split could still be highly valuable for Atlanta.
The reason is simple: division races are about preventing rivals from making progress as much as they are about making progress yourself.
If Philadelphia cannot gain ground during a four-game home series against Atlanta, the Braves will have accomplished an important objective.
The pressure would then remain on the Phillies to make up ground elsewhere.
That is why the Holmes decision matters.
Every individual game contributes to the larger standings picture.
Atlanta cannot afford to give away opportunities.
Final Thoughts
The Braves’ decision to move Grant Holmes into Monday’s starting role represents a sensible adjustment at a critical point in the season.
His abbreviated outing against Washington left him fresh, and his recent performance has been strong enough to justify another opportunity. He threw three perfect innings Wednesday before the rain delay ended his day, and Atlanta ultimately defeated the Nationals 9-0. (Reuters)
At the same time, the Phillies are coming off one of their strongest months of the season. Their 21-7 August and six-game winning streak demonstrated the danger they pose, even though Arizona ended that streak Wednesday with a 1-0 victory. (Reuters)
That sets the stage for an extremely important four-game battle.
For Atlanta, the priority is clear: take advantage of every opportunity to strengthen its position in the NL East.
Holmes gives the Braves another chance to do exactly that.
The right-hander may not have been part of the original plan for Monday, but circumstances have created an opportunity. Now Atlanta has to determine whether the adjustment can help it navigate one of the most important series remaining on its schedule.
If Holmes continues his recent run of strong pitching, the Braves could look back on this last-minute rotation change as one of the more consequential decisions of their September push.
And with the division race tightening, those small decisions could ultimately determine who is playing October baseball with a division title in hand.
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