The 2024-25 season has been a disappointing one for the New York Rangers, with nearly every key player failing to meet expectations. While the team has shown some improvement since the start of the new year, the core group has largely underperformed compared to previous seasons.
Among the most concerning regressions is that of Alexis Lafreniere, the 23-year-old former No. 1 overall pick whom the Rangers recently committed to as a key part of their future.
Last season, Lafreniere seemed to have finally turned a corner, posting career highs with 28 goals, 29 assists, and 57 points. He was arguably the Rangers’ best forward in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, tying for the team lead with eight goals and adding six assists in 16 games, playing a crucial role in their run to the Eastern Conference Final. At long last, he appeared to be unlocking his full potential.
However, this season has been a struggle. Despite maintaining a top-six role, Lafreniere has endured long scoring droughts and currently sits at 14 goals and 32 points through 55 games.
After steady year-over-year improvement—from 21 points as a rookie to 31, then 39, and finally 57 last season—Lafreniere now seems poised to see his production decline for the first time in his NHL career. It’s a surprising turn of events, especially considering many expected him to take the next step and push for a 70-point season.
Could Alexis Lafreniere’s 7-year extension be risky investment for Rangers
The Rangers’ front office believed Lafreniere was on an upward trajectory, opting to secure him with a seven-year, $52.15 million extension in late October, anticipating a potential breakout in the final season of his two-year, $4.6 million bridge deal. At the time, the contract was seen as a smart move for the team, though some viewed it as a missed opportunity for the young forward to push for a bigger payday.
That extension doesn’t take effect until 2025-26, but so far, the decision to lock Lafreniere in long-term isn’t looking promising. His impact has noticeably declined compared to 2023-24, with familiar concerns about conditioning, commitment, and defensive play resurfacing. The energetic, aggressive player who frequently attacked the net last season has been largely absent.
Lafreniere has never been known for strong defensive play, but his struggles in that area have been particularly glaring. A lackluster backchecking effort against the Penguins on Friday directly led to Rickard Rakell’s game-tying goal in an eventual 3-2 loss.
The following night against Columbus, his defensive lapses continued—he failed to properly track back on Justin Danforth’s opening goal and was slow to respond on James van Riemsdyk’s tally, which gave the Blue Jackets a 3-2 lead. Although the Rangers managed to pull off a 4-3 win, those concerns about Lafreniere’s game remain.
Statistically, he’s at a career-worst minus-13 this season after maintaining a plus-14 rating over the previous three years. His offensive production hasn’t compensated for his defensive shortcomings either, as he’s on pace for just 48 points—marking the first time in his five NHL seasons that his scoring hasn’t improved year over year. Before the two-week break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, he had just one goal in his last eight games and endured a 13-game goal drought between early December and early January.
After facing criticism about his fitness and skating heading into 2023-24, Lafreniere worked diligently with a trainer to enhance his speed and lower-body strength, leading to a breakout campaign. However, his noticeable lack of explosiveness this season has reignited those concerns—and raised new ones.
There’s speculation about whether signing a long-term deal has influenced his performance. Some suggest he’s become complacent now that he’s secured a lucrative contract, while others believe he’s feeling the pressure to justify his upcoming salary. The truth may lie somewhere in between. Regardless, these questions will persist until Lafreniere can rediscover the form that made him such a vital piece of the Rangers’ future.
Rangers are desperate for Alexis Lafreniere to grow into a star
There’s no doubt that Lafreniere is under pressure. While the Rangers aren’t an old team overall, their top-six forwards are aging. The organization drafted Kaapo Kakko second overall in 2019 and Lafreniere first overall in 2020, hoping for long-term stars. However, Kakko was traded earlier this season, and Lafreniere’s future looks uncertain after his step back in performance.
Failing to develop at least one star from those high picks would be a major setback for the Rangers—or any franchise—when planning for the future. That said, it’s not as if Lafreniere’s career is heading in a disastrous direction. At 23, he still has time to elevate his game, but his consistency and overall impact must improve.
With the expectations that come with being a first-overall pick, comparisons are inevitable. So far, Lafreniere hasn’t been the standout player from the 2020 draft class, as Tim Stützle, Lucas Raymond, and Seth Jarvis have all made stronger impressions.
Last season, Lafreniere proved he had the offensive skills expected of a top pick. The real concern now is whether he has the drive to continue developing into the offensive force he appeared to be in 2023-24. Just months ago, during last year’s playoffs, he played with intensity, skill, and confidence, delivering clutch goals.
Defensive play isn’t about talent—it’s about effort and commitment. The Rangers have to wonder whether recent lapses, like those against Pittsburgh and Columbus, are isolated mistakes or signs of a larger issue in Lafreniere’s game and mentality.
Advanced metrics offer a mixed evaluation of his performance at 5-on-5. His expected goal share sits at 50.1%, down from last season’s career-best 52.7%, per Natural Stat Trick. The Rangers have outchanced opponents 429-408 with him on the ice at even strength, but they’ve been outscored 45-41, including 25-15 in high-danger goals—one of which was Rakell’s.
It’s also worth noting that Lafreniere isn’t benefiting from career-best seasons by usual linemates Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck this year. Panarin had a Hart Trophy-caliber 2023-24 campaign with 120 points, the second-highest total in Rangers history, while Trocheck made the All-Star Game and posted 77 points. With both regressing, Lafreniere’s numbers have dipped as well.
The Rangers are undoubtedly hoping that Lafreniere, like many of their key players, is simply being dragged down by an overall disappointing season. With playoff hopes in jeopardy, they can only bank on him bouncing back later this season or next. Given their long-term financial commitment to him as a supposed franchise cornerstone, they don’t have much choice but to believe in his potential.
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