The New York Mets enter this offseason with a clear objective: find a true No. 1 starting pitcher, someone capable of anchoring the rotation and taking the mound in the biggest games. While the free-agent market has options, the Mets might instead look toward the trade market, where elite pitchers occasionally become available under the right circumstances.
One name being mentioned is Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, a dominant left-hander who could be moved because of his contractual situation. But an even bigger, more electrifying idea has begun circulating among analysts and insiders: if the Mets really want to swing for the fences, why not explore a trade for Paul Skenes?
Skubal’s potential trade availability stems from tense contract negotiations. Reports indicate that the Tigers and Skubal are nowhere near an extension, which is a major issue because he’s nearing free agency with only one year of team control remaining. Detroit must soon choose between locking him up long-term or trading him now to maximize value.
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Should the Tigers shop him, the return will be enormous—multiple premier prospects, possibly young major league contributors, and perhaps both. But if the Mets are willing to pay that kind of price, they might consider targeting a pitcher with even greater upside than Skubal—someone with generational talent and many more years of team control.
That pitcher is Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Skenes has taken the sport by storm since debuting, quickly establishing himself not just as a future ace, but as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball today. In a very short time, he has become a two-time All-Star, and this season he is viewed as the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award—perhaps the most prestigious award for a pitcher. His elite mix of power, command, and competitiveness makes him the type of pitcher franchises dream of building around.
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Financial projections reflect his massive value. According to Spotrac, the contract Skenes could ultimately command might reach historic heights—an estimated 13-year deal worth around $506 million, a sum that would rival the biggest contracts ever given to a pitcher.
Those kinds of numbers highlight a tough reality for Pittsburgh: they have rarely been willing or able to hand out huge contracts to star players. The Pirates are known for operating with strict budgets and often choose to move star players before they reach free agency.
This brings the situation into focus. If the Pirates were consistently competitive, it would be simple: they would hold onto their young ace, extend him, and try to build a winning team around him. But Pittsburgh has struggled for years to construct a perennial contender. The organization has not shown a sustained commitment to spending or aggressively supplementing young talent with high-priced veterans.
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Meanwhile, Skenes—who will have no trouble commanding top-tier money—has little incentive to sign an extension that gives the team a hometown discount. Unlike some young players who prioritize security, Skenes has both leverage and talent on his side.
So if Skenes becomes even somewhat available, other clubs—including the Mets—will line up to at least inquire. In fact, Zachary D. Rymer from Bleacher Report recently listed the Mets as a legitimate candidate to pull off a trade for Skenes. Rymer’s reasoning is simple: New York has both financial muscle and prospect capital, and team owner Steve Cohen has already demonstrated a willingness to spend whatever is needed to build a winner. If there is a bidding war for Skenes—via trade now or via a massive contract later—the Mets are one of the few organizations capable of winning it.
From New York’s perspective, Skenes represents everything they have been lacking: a young, durable, top-of-the-rotation star who could headline the pitching staff for the next decade. He already looks like one of the top pitchers in the league, despite being only 23 years old. In just 55 major league starts, he has carved out a career ERA under 2.00—1.96 to be exact—which is an extraordinary statistic for a pitcher so early in his career. Unfortunately for him, many of those brilliant outings have not turned into wins due to lackluster offensive support from the Pirates.
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Another factor that boosts Skenes’s value: team control. Unlike Skubal, who is only one year away from free agency, Skenes is under team control through the 2029 season. Any team that trades for him would get several prime years before even needing to think about an extension. That level of control would drive up the price of a trade to previously unseen levels.
The Pirates would expect a return package unlike anything baseball has seen in recent years: multiple elite prospects, perhaps young MLB players with star potential, and possibly even more. The Mets, under Cohen’s vision of building a sustained contender, might be one of the few teams willing to go that far.
For the Mets, the question becomes simple—how badly do they want a franchise-defining ace? They have the resources to attempt something bold, and if they believe Skenes is a once-in-a-generation pitcher, then a mega-trade could be justified. Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns have been clear that the farm system is a priority, yet they have also emphasized that the club is ready to compete. If there were ever a moment to push chips into the center of the table, a pitcher like Skenes might be the reason.
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Meanwhile, for Pittsburgh, the situation hinges on strategy. Trading Skenes would be wildly unpopular among fans and would signal another rebuild. But if the Pirates know they cannot retain him long-term—and if he refuses to sign an extension—then the value they could recoup would be gigantic. It could reshape the franchise.
Ultimately, both Skubal and Skenes represent paths to pitching excellence for New York, but only Skenes offers a chance to acquire a pitcher who could become the face of the franchise for the next decade. If the Mets are willing to go big, then Skenes is the boldest move of all.
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