The Boston Red Sox have been active and deliberate in reshaping their pitching staff this offseason, making it increasingly clear that their rotation plans for the upcoming campaign may no longer include right-hander Lucas Giolito. After bringing in veteran starter Sonny Gray and adding depth with Johan Oviedo, Boston appears to have filled the rotation spots it felt were necessary—leaving Giolito on the outside looking in as free agency unfolds.
Giolito’s situation is a particularly compelling one, given the winding path his career has taken over the past several seasons. After missing the entire 2024 campaign due to surgery and recovery, the veteran right-hander returned to the mound in 2025 with something to prove. He responded by delivering one of the more impressive comeback seasons among American League starters, providing stability and consistency for a Red Sox team that desperately needed reliable innings.
Yet despite that success, Giolito himself has openly acknowledged that his future likely lies away from Fenway Park. During an appearance on the popular baseball podcast Baseball Isn’t Boring, Giolito spoke candidly about his outlook and the reality of Boston’s roster construction. He suggested that, while he enjoyed his time with the organization and appreciated the opportunity to reestablish his value, the additions of Gray and Oviedo may have closed the door on a potential reunion.
“I don’t think they really need another starter,” Giolito explained, noting that the Red Sox front office has made its intentions fairly clear through its offseason moves. His comments were not delivered with bitterness, but rather with a sense of realism—an understanding of how front offices operate and how quickly circumstances can change in professional baseball.
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From a purely statistical standpoint, Giolito gave Boston exactly what it could have hoped for last season. Across 26 starts, he compiled a 3.41 earned run average, a mark that stood in sharp contrast to the struggles he endured in the two seasons prior.
Between 2022 and 2023, Giolito bounced between the Chicago White Sox, the Cleveland Guardians, and the Los Angeles Angels, posting a combined ERA of 4.89 during that stretch. Once considered one of the more dependable arms in the American League, he had seen his stock fall amid inconsistency, mechanical issues, and declining results.
That made his resurgence with Boston all the more noteworthy. Giolito didn’t simply eat innings; he pitched with purpose, mixing his arsenal effectively and limiting damage in key moments. While he may not have looked like a dominant ace, he provided something that every contending team values: predictability. His ability to take the ball every fifth day and give his team a chance to win restored much of the credibility he had lost earlier in his career.
Even so, baseball is a forward-looking business, and the Red Sox appear to be prioritizing rotation depth with different profiles. Gray brings a track record of durability and veteran savvy, while Oviedo offers upside and cost-controlled years. When viewed through that lens, Giolito’s path back to Boston becomes far less certain, regardless of how well he performed in his return season.
This evolving reality has not gone unnoticed around the league. According to a recent projection by Sports Illustrated writers Will Laws and Nick Selbe, Giolito could be an ideal fit for the Baltimore Orioles as they continue to explore options to strengthen their starting rotation. The Orioles, who have emerged as a legitimate contender in the American League, are widely expected to pursue additional pitching to support their young core.
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While Giolito may not be the frontline ace some teams are targeting, he represents a logical and potentially cost-effective solution for a club seeking rotation stability. Baltimore’s pitching staff has talent, but it has also faced questions about experience and workload as the team transitions from rebuild to sustained contention. Adding a veteran like Giolito could help bridge that gap.
From Baltimore’s perspective, Giolito profiles as a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm—someone capable of slotting in behind a top starter and ahead of younger, less-proven options. He brings postseason experience, familiarity with pressure situations, and a track record that suggests his floor remains relatively high when healthy. For a team with playoff aspirations, those qualities can be just as valuable as raw dominance.
There is also an undeniable narrative angle to such a move. Signing with the Orioles would place Giolito in direct competition with the Red Sox, offering him a chance to face his former team multiple times a season. For any professional athlete, that kind of scenario carries extra motivation. While Giolito has never been known as someone who thrives on grudges, the opportunity to prove Boston wrong for letting him walk could add fuel to an already compelling comeback story.
That said, Giolito’s post-surgery performance did reveal some limitations. Most notably, his strikeout rate dipped compared to his peak years. He finished the season with 121 strikeouts, a modest total by modern standards and well below what he produced earlier in his career. In an era where swing-and-miss stuff is often prized above all else, that decline may give some teams pause.
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However, context matters. Despite the reduced strikeout numbers, Giolito managed to post the same ERA he recorded during his 2019 All-Star season, a campaign in which he was widely regarded as one of the better pitchers in baseball. That suggests his success last year was not a fluke, but rather the result of adaptation—learning how to pitch differently as his physical tools evolved.
Instead of overpowering hitters, Giolito relied more on sequencing, command, and limiting hard contact. He induced weaker swings, avoided big innings, and trusted his defense. For many pitchers entering their 30s, that transition becomes essential, and Giolito appears to have embraced it rather than resisted it.
Still, when stacked against the top arms on the free-agent market, Giolito is not the most eye-catching option. High-profile starters such as Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez offer higher strikeout upside and, in some cases, greater consistency over recent seasons. Teams in need of a true No. 1 starter will likely prioritize those names.
That reality may actually work in Giolito’s favor. With less demand at the top end, his market could settle at a more affordable range, making him an appealing target for clubs that want reliability without committing massive long-term dollars. For a team like Baltimore, which has been disciplined in its spending even as it ascends in the standings, that balance could be particularly attractive.
For Giolito, the coming weeks represent another crossroads in a career defined by reinvention. He has experienced the highs of All-Star recognition and the lows of being traded midseason and sidelined by injury. His most recent campaign proved that he still belongs in a major league rotation, but it did not guarantee him a long-term home.
Whether he ultimately lands in Baltimore or elsewhere, Giolito’s story underscores the unpredictable nature of pitching careers in today’s game. Performance, health, roster construction, and timing all intersect in ways that can reshape a player’s trajectory overnight. The Red Sox may have decided to move forward without him, but Giolito has positioned himself to ensure that his next chapter remains relevant—and potentially impactful.
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As free agency continues to unfold, his name will likely remain linked to teams searching for dependable innings and veteran presence. While he may no longer be viewed as a staff anchor, he has demonstrated that he can still provide meaningful value. For the right club, that could make all the difference in a long and demanding season.
In the end, Lucas Giolito’s future may not include another run in Boston, but his resurgence has ensured that his career is far from finished. Wherever he signs, he will carry with him both the lessons of adversity and the confidence that comes from proving, once again, that he can succeed at the highest level.
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