Logan Gilbert just completed his best season, recording a 3.23 ERA and impressive strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-best 208 2/3 innings. The former 14th overall draft pick has fulfilled expectations since his MLB debut in 2021. While he has secured a spot in the Mariners’ rotation, his future with the team is not guaranteed. According to Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, there has been minimal discussion about a long-term contract, and “nothing is imminent” regarding such negotiations.
There are several reasons for Mariners fans not to be overly concerned about the lack of contract talks. Gilbert is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility and will remain under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player. He and the Mariners sidestepped a hearing last winter by agreeing on a $4.05 million salary for 2024. Given his strong performance this year, he is projected to earn $8.1 million in 2025.
If the 27-year-old continues to excel during his arbitration years, his salary will likely rise, but this would still be a relative bargain for the Mariners, given his ace-level contributions.
Extending Gilbert before Opening Day would provide the team with cost certainty for the remainder of his arbitration years and could ultimately be a good deal, considering Gilbert’s potential for improvement.
In the 2024 season, Gilbert achieved a career-high 27.4% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate while maintaining his usual excellent control. His 39.3% hard-hit ball rate was the best of his four Major League seasons, ranking in the 44th percentile among all pitchers, a significant improvement from his previous seasons where he never surpassed the 11th percentile.
Seattle’s rotation is not only one of the best in baseball but also one of the most economical. While Luis Castillo commands the largest contract with a five-year, $108 million extension signed in September 2022, Gilbert is entering his second arbitration year, George Kirby is projected for $5.5 million in his first arbitration year, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are still in their pre-arbitration years. Emerson Hancock, a former sixth overall pick, has had limited success over his 72 2/3 career MLB innings, but he remains a promising young talent in a rotation filled with quality and durability.
This depth in pitching talent benefits the Mariners in multiple ways, particularly by giving them flexibility in contract negotiations. Adhering to the belief that “you can never have enough pitching,” the Mariners are not in a rush to secure Gilbert’s contract, especially with so many other talented pitchers available.
The extended team control for non-Castillo pitchers allows the Mariners more time to evaluate which younger players can become long-term assets. If the team believes they have seen enough from Miller or Woo, signing one of them to an extension early could be less expensive than extending Gilbert.
If any of these starters are not part of Seattle’s long-term plans, trades could be a possibility, a theme echoed in Jude’s article. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has downplayed the likelihood of the Mariners trading from their rotation this offseason, although his position could change if a compelling offer arises. Specifically, a trade involving a talented young hitter with additional years of team control could address Seattle’s pressing need for offensive help.
It’s important to note that Gilbert may not necessarily be the pitcher traded, despite potential salary increases. One NL scout mentioned that “if they have to trade someone, Miller would make the most sense,” but he also cautioned that it would be unwise for the Mariners to trade any of their starters.
Jude points out that Miller has notable home/away performance discrepancies (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings at home, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings on the road), which could make other teams hesitant about his success being a product of a pitcher-friendly environment. Castillo is considered the least likely to be traded due to his larger contract and his upcoming age-32 season.
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