For the second consecutive winter, He once again finds himself positioned squarely in the middle of Major League Baseball’s rumor mill. Just a year ago, he was widely viewed as the player most likely to be moved, with insiders convinced that his departure from St. Louis was inevitable.
When he ultimately rejected a trade that would have sent him to the Houston Astros, many people around the game believed that the discussions were merely delayed, not dismissed. The expectation was that sooner or later, Arenado and the Cardinals would eventually part ways because the relationship had shifted from promising to problematic.
Now, as the league heads deeper into the 2025–26 offseason, the dynamic has changed even more dramatically — and not in the Cardinals’ favor. The once-reliable superstar has become a focal point for entirely different reasons. Conversations throughout baseball suggest that his presence on St. Louis’s roster is no longer viewed as stabilizing or beneficial. Instead, the 34-year-old is increasingly discussed as a central obstacle in the team’s efforts to reset and rebuild. Analysts, executives, and former front-office personnel are beginning to openly question whether the time has come for the Cardinals to sever ties entirely.
That sentiment was made unmistakably clear during Sunday’s edition of MLB Network Radio’s show The Front Office. Former general manager Jim Bowden, known for delivering candid assessments, spoke directly to the heart of the dilemma. His view was stark and unfiltered.
Bowden explained that while he respects Arenado and appreciates the player he once was, the situation has simply run its course. “I love Arenado, I love the person, but it’s over,” he said, pointing to a steep three-year decline in performance that has left the longtime third baseman’s output badly misaligned with the financial commitment attached to him. The contract, once regarded as a bargain for St. Louis, has now become one of the most burdensome obligations on the team’s books.
Co-host Jim Duquette echoed Bowden’s viewpoint and added another layer to the issue: the perception around the league. According to Duquette, rival clubs recognize that the Cardinals are in a tight spot. Other executives understand St. Louis needs to free itself from Arenado’s contract and the roster complications it creates.
As a result, many teams are simply choosing to wait. Rather than surrender assets in a trade, they believe the Cardinals may eventually reach a point where they are forced to release Arenado outright. That dynamic significantly reduces St. Louis’s leverage and makes any meaningful trade return nearly impossible.
Arenado’s contract situation only intensifies the pressure. Though he is entering the twilight of his career, he is still owed $32 million over the next two seasons — and that figure does not include the money the Colorado Rockies continue to pay as part of the original deal that sent him to St. Louis. When Arenado opted not to use his opt-out clause following the 2022 season, he effectively locked himself into a contract that once appeared club-friendly. Now, the financial commitment looms as one of the least flexible long-term obligations the Cardinals must manage.
The decline in Arenado’s on-field production has been gradual, but the trajectory is undeniable. After an outstanding 2022 season in which he delivered MVP-level numbers, his offensive impact began slipping noticeably. In 2023 and 2024, he posted roughly league-average results at the plate, a significant drop for a player long considered one of the best all-around talents at third base.
His 2025 campaign represented the steepest decline yet. He finished the season hitting .237/.289/.377 with just 12 home runs in 107 games, and his .666 OPS was by far the lowest of his career in any full season.
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Advanced metrics confirm what traditional statistics already make clear: this is not a temporary slump. This is the harsh reality of an aging superstar whose physical tools are beginning to erode. Arenado’s average exit velocity in 2025 fell to 86.8 mph — well below his peak levels — and his hard-hit rate hovered around 32 percent.
Perhaps most telling was his barrel rate dipping below 4 percent, an indicator that he is no longer frequently producing the ideal combination of launch angle and exit velocity required for quality contact. These underlying numbers reveal a player whose offensive potency has faded significantly.
Compounding the performance decline are the injuries that have piled up. Arenado has dealt with persistent shoulder issues as well as recurring back discomfort, both of which hindered him throughout 2024 and 2025.
These nagging physical problems contributed to his reduced power, which has not resembled his Colorado days — or even his early tenure in St. Louis — for several seasons now. Many evaluators around MLB no longer see him as a star-caliber third baseman. Instead, they view him as an average regular, a player whose consistency and impact have diminished sharply.
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For St. Louis’s new head of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom, the timing of Arenado’s decline presents a particularly complex challenge. Bloom, who has already shown a willingness to reshape the roster — including trading Sonny Gray as part of a broader organizational revamp — must now confront the limitations that Arenado’s contract imposes on both the payroll and the lineup.
St. Louis has significantly trimmed its spending heading into the 2026 season, but Arenado still occupies one of the largest financial commitments on the roster. His presence limits the team’s flexibility both financially and in terms of player development.
Bloom must also prioritize the integration of younger players, especially as the Cardinals attempt to retool around a new core. Bowden emphasized that Arenado’s diminishing role cannot be allowed to interfere with that process. “You can’t let him take away at-bats from younger players,” he said, highlighting the risk of allowing a declining veteran to block emerging talent that the organization needs to evaluate.
The final complication is Arenado’s full no-trade clause. Even if the Cardinals identify a potential trade partner willing to take on part of the financial burden, Arenado retains full control over his destination. Combined with the lack of market leverage and leaguewide expectations that St. Louis may ultimately release him, the Cardinals appear trapped in a difficult position with limited options.
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Because of all these factors, some insiders believe the team may ultimately conclude that absorbing the cost of releasing Arenado is the most pragmatic path forward. If the Cardinals choose to cut him, they would still owe the remaining salary, but it would free him to pursue a free-agent contract unencumbered by his current deal. For St. Louis, it would eliminate the roster blockage and remove an obstacle preventing them from transitioning fully into a younger era.
Duquette acknowledged that while this outcome is possible, it is not necessarily imminent. He expects that St. Louis will give Arenado a clean opportunity in spring training to show whether he can rebound — or at least stabilize his performance enough to justify a roster spot.
But if his production continues its downward trend during the spring, the organization may be forced to confront a stark reality: moving on from Arenado, despite his legacy and past excellence, could be the most straightforward solution for a franchise in transition.
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