The New York Mets enter the offseason facing several important decisions that could significantly influence the direction of the franchise for years to come. Among the most pressing issues are the futures of two marquee players: first baseman Pete Alonso and star closer Edwin Díaz.
Both players opted out of their current contracts, making themselves free agents, and in doing so created a ripple effect that is now shaping the organization’s winter strategy.
The Mets must determine whether to invest long-term money into retaining these cornerstone pieces or whether to pivot toward constructing a roster that allocates payroll differently. Alonso and Díaz are not merely contributors; they are central figures—faces of the franchise—who have shaped the identity of this team over the past several seasons.
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For Díaz, the decision to test free agency is rooted in the belief that his performance during the 2025 season reestablished him as one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball. Just one year removed from a disappointing 2024 campaign—when lingering effects from a traumatic knee injury slowed his return—Díaz regained his elite form.
The right-hander completed the 2025 season with a remarkable 1.63 ERA and earned his third career All-Star selection. His numbers reflect not only a rebound, but also a return to the dominant version of Díaz that became a fan favorite in New York.
A quick look at his journey explains why his decision to opt out makes sense. In the spring of 2023, Díaz suffered a severe knee injury during the World Baseball Classic. The unexpected setback wiped out his entire season and raised concerns about what his future would look like. Many wondered whether he would be able to recapture his previous effectiveness or whether lastingly diminished velocity or command would hold him back.
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The 2024 season showcased a reliever in transition—still powerful, yet inconsistent. The numbers tell that story: Díaz recorded a 3.52 ERA in 2024, respectable but lacking the overwhelming dominance he was known for. The primary culprit was a spike in home runs allowed, which inflated his ERA despite otherwise solid underlying metrics.
By the time the 2025 season rolled around, however, Díaz was finally fully healthy—stronger, more confident, and with the explosiveness back in his pitch repertoire. His fastball regained its late life, and the slider—the pitch that has long been his signature weapon—was once again a devastating out-pitch that confounded hitters. The improved performance validated his belief that he still belongs among the best closers in baseball.
Díaz, aware of the leverage created by his resurgence, chose to opt out of the final two years and $38 million remaining on his contract. From a strategic standpoint, the decision signals that he believes the free-agent market can offer him both more years and more guaranteed money. The Mets attempted to keep Díaz in the fold by extending him a qualifying offer—meaning if he signs elsewhere, the team receives draft pick compensation—but given his market demand and performance, he is almost certain to turn that offer down.
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ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, a respected baseball analyst and former MLB front office evaluator, supports the notion that opting out was the correct business move for Díaz. In one of his offseason projections, McDaniel predicted that the veteran closer could secure a four-year contract worth around $60 million on the open market.
He explained that while Díaz’s ERA fluctuated between his 2024 and 2025 seasons, the more predictive data—such as strikeout rates, command metrics, pitch quality, and expected run prevention—remained stable. Those underlying indicators showed that Díaz consistently performed at a level comparable to the elite relievers of the league.
In other words, the difference between the 3.52 ERA in 2024 and the 1.63 ERA in 2025 was largely tied to one variable: home runs allowed. Since home run rates often fluctuate year to year and are influenced by luck and ballpark conditions, front offices are less likely to penalize a reliever heavily for those numbers when everything else in his profile remains excellent.
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McDaniel summarized the contract outlook by writing that Díaz is likely looking at — at minimum — a three-year offer, and more realistically a four-year deal that could surpass $50 million in total value. Given the consistency of his peripheral statistics and the rebound in his performance, teams searching for an established closer will view him as a rare opportunity. Top-shelf relievers rarely reach the open market because their teams either lock them down long-term or trade them before their contract ends.
Díaz’s résumé makes that level of demand easy to understand. He has earned three All-Star selections and has twice been honored as the Reliever of the Year—an achievement that is even more impressive considering he won the award in both the American League and the National League.
Few closers in baseball history have been recognized as the best in their league at different points in their career and while pitching for multiple franchises. His tenure with the Mets has been defined by unforgettable moments, including the now-iconic stadium entrances where the crowd erupts as his entrance song—Timmy Trumpet’s “Narco”—blasts through the ballpark. That moment became a cultural flashpoint in baseball, enhancing Díaz’s identity as a charismatic and dominant force.
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The Mets must now evaluate the competitive and financial implications of re-signing Díaz. On one hand, elite relievers are volatile assets, and paying top dollars for bullpen arms carries inherent risk. On the other hand, Díaz represents a known quantity—someone who has succeeded in New York, thrived under pressure, and earned the trust of teammates and coaches.
Replacing López with a lesser reliever and shifting payroll elsewhere might free up money for the starting rotation or offense, but it would weaken the team’s most critical late-game solution.
An additional dimension to this decision is timing. The Mets are attempting to build a roster capable of competing with divisional rivals like the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Their bullpen performance has been a recurring weakness in recent seasons.
In tight playoff races, the bullpen often determines whether a team plays into October or watches the postseason from home. Díaz has shown that he can close games in high-leverage situations and perform under the spotlight. He is, quite simply, the definition of a difference-maker.
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From a leadership standpoint, Díaz also plays a significant role. Younger relievers in the Mets’ system look to him for guidance, and the coaching staff values his professionalism and preparation habits. Losing him would not only affect performance, but also remove a stabilizing presence in the bullpen. It is difficult to quantify the value of leadership, but every successful playoff bullpen features some combination of dominant talent and veteran experience.
There is also fan sentiment. In recent years, Mets supporters have been vocal about keeping homegrown or established stars, especially after watching players like Jacob deGrom leave the organization. Re-signing Díaz would send a message from Mets ownership: that the franchise is committed to retaining elite players and pushing toward championship contention. Allowing him to walk without a serious attempt to match his market value would create frustration among fans and perhaps even within the clubhouse.
For Díaz himself, the motivations extend beyond money. He is competitive, enjoys the spotlight of New York, and has developed strong relationships with both teammates and the community. But this is likely his last chance at a long-term payday, and the free-agent market offers him something his current deal does not: an opportunity to secure more guaranteed years.
Ultimately, the most probable outcome is that Díaz receives multiple offers from teams looking to solidify their bullpen. Whether the Mets are willing to go into the four-year, $55–$65 million range may determine whether he stays in Queens.
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If they are serious about winning in the next few years and want to maintain the strength of their bullpen, it is difficult to justify letting one of the game’s premier closers walk away. Díaz has earned the opportunity to explore free agency, but the Mets should be aggressive in their pursuit to bring him back. Players of his caliber are rare, and replacing him would almost certainly cost more than simply retaining him.
In short, the Mets find themselves in a critical moment. Their star closer has proven he is healthy, dominant, and back to being the pitcher who once electrified an entire stadium every time the bullpen gate opened. The question now is whether the Mets will meet his market value — or watch another team reap the rewards of the comeback that Edwin Díaz worked so hard to complete.
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