The Seattle Mariners faltered down the stretch in 2024, missing the playoffs once again. Their offense struggled mightily, finishing with the second-worst team batting average in MLB. After blowing a ten-game AL West lead they held in June, the team parted ways with manager Scott Servais.
While their offseason has been relatively quiet so far, a major trade opportunity is on the horizon. The Mariners should pursue a deal for Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado before Spring Training.
St. Louis is reportedly shopping Arenado as they transition into a rebuild. With Chaim Bloom brought in to overhaul their minor league system, the Cardinals could benefit from adding strong prospects to their farm. Arenado has three years remaining on his contract, with over $60 million still owed through 2028. A trade with Seattle would likely require the Cardinals to retain salary, but it’s a move worth exploring.
Seattle has seven prospects ranked in MLB.com’s 2025 Top 100. While other teams may have more elite talent, the Mariners could leverage their depth to strike a deal. Catcher Harry Ford offers a near-term solution, while 19-year-old shortstop Felnin Celesten represents a long-term investment. Since Arenado is no longer in his prime, St. Louis would likely demand higher-quality prospects in return if they cover part of his salary.
With Alex Bregman still on the free-agent market, several teams are looking to upgrade at third base. If Bregman signs elsewhere, those teams may turn to Arenado as an alternative. The Mariners have an opportunity to act swiftly, securing a star infielder before the market heats up.
The Mariners need Nolan Arenado for 2025
The Mariners are in an ideal position to trade for Nolan Arenado, and they could certainly use his skill set. With three of their starting infielders from last season departing in free agency—most notably Josh Rojas, who signed with the White Sox—Seattle has a glaring hole in the infield. Arenado, one of the best defensive third basemen of his generation, would be a perfect fit to shore up their defense.
Seattle also plays in one of the toughest ballparks for hitters, as confirmed by Baseball Savant. The offensive challenges at T-Mobile Park are well-documented, and this Mariners core has struggled with them. Arenado has also had a rough history there, posting a .125 career batting average in Seattle—his worst in any stadium. However, it’s worth noting that most hitters struggle at T-Mobile Park.
The AL West landscape has shifted significantly this offseason, potentially working in Seattle’s favor. The Houston Astros dealt away Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly and could lose Alex Bregman. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers haven’t made major additions following a disappointing year. With one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, the Mariners have a real opportunity to take control of the division.
The question isn’t if the Cardinals will trade Arenado—it’s when. While a deal might not happen this offseason, especially if Arenado refuses to waive his no-trade clause, waiting until the trade deadline could work in the Mariners’ favor. They could focus on other lineup improvements, such as bringing back Jorge Polanco, who performed well for them last year. If their pitching keeps them in contention by July, making a move for Arenado at that point could be the ideal strategy.
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