“The truth can be painful, and this one might leave a mark.”
Nothing stings quite like the truth, and recently, the New York Mets have given their fans a lot of painful realities to face. It’s not just your body aching as you approach 40, or those tears shed over a commercial about underprivileged dogs, or the mental fog that isn’t from any illness other than being a baseball fan.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70849201/1396178084.0.jpg)
Like a scratch on a rental car, a text from an ex to a spouse, or a bat in the attic, we hope these problems will go away on their own. Sadly, they often don’t and tend to worsen the more we try to ignore them.
These three harsh realities confronting the Mets will challenge your happiness in the coming weeks.
1) The Mets starting rotation isn’t good enough to win a championship
The Mets’ starting rotation might be strong enough to reach the postseason, but is merely making the playoffs the ultimate goal? It’s akin to going to a restaurant for the ambiance without even ordering a meal.
The Mets’ starting pitchers, like the rest of the roster, have had their share of ups and downs. However, given how crucial starting pitching is, it’s clear how much they lag behind other teams.
Without a true ace, the Mets will need a lot of those standout performances from their starters to secure a playoff spot. We’ve seen Sean Manaea produce a few of these, only for him to struggle in his next outing, getting pulled after just a few innings and giving up several walks.
Playoff baseball is a different beast, so the starters’ inability to go deep into games isn’t the biggest concern. More pressing is how quickly things can unravel when the starter doesn’t have his best stuff.
In many ways, the Mets’ starting rotation has exceeded preseason expectations. With only Paul Blackburn added to the mix, and the reliability of Kodai Senga and Christian Scott still uncertain, the Mets will need their starters to heat up in a season that’s been relatively lukewarm so far.
2) The Mets offense is too reliant on home runs
The narrative surrounding the Mets’ offense has shifted to their struggles with hitting when runners are in scoring position. This issue is compounded by the team’s surprising reliance on home runs this season. This dependency becomes problematic when facing strong pitching, as was evident in their recent series against the Seattle Mariners. It’s worth questioning how many of their 149 home runs, which rank sixth in MLB, have come against weaker teams or subpar pitching.
However, the Mets haven’t been completely ineffective against quality pitchers. During their hot streak in June, they managed to score off top-tier starters. But that performance contrasts sharply with their recent struggles, where key players like Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez have underperformed in the second half.
In this latter part of the season, the power hitters have gone quiet, with only six players hitting home runs, led by Pete Alonso with seven. Nimmo’s decline has been particularly steep, with a .140 batting average and no home runs since the All-Star Break.
When the Mets aren’t consistently hitting home runs, their offense falters. Despite ranking sixth in home runs, their 574 runs scored put them at 11th in MLB. While this might not reveal much about the Mets themselves, it does suggest that other teams are finding alternative ways to generate offense.
3) Any trip to the playoffs for the Mets will not last long
Will the Mets even make it to the postseason? It seems like their best shot is securing the third Wild Card spot, which isn’t too bad considering the 2022 and 2023 NL Pennant winners came from that position.
However, after all the effort in August and September, making it to the postseason only to be quickly eliminated would be disappointing. There would likely be questions about whether it was worth making moves at the trade deadline (it was, and always will be), or if they didn’t do enough.
The Mets haven’t shown the spark that teams destined for success usually display at this point in the season. The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are on fire right now, fitting the “getting hot at the right time” mold, while the Mets seem to be more in the “peaked too early” category.
Can the Mets win a playoff series? Sure, they could win a best-of-three. But beyond that, it’s hard to see them competing with the stronger teams.
The inconsistency of this year’s team is a harsh reality that isn’t likely to change. This is the type of team that might feel like they’ve won a championship just by reaching the postseason. Given how they’ve been playing lately, with key hitters underperforming, a lot would need to improve for the Mets to make any significant impact in a playoff run.
Be the first to comment