Few teams have had a more chaotic offseason than Tennessee, making it tough to predict how the Vols will perform this fall after reaching the College Football Playoff in 2024.
Now that Nico Iamaleava is at UCLA, college football analyst Josh Pate recently discussed Tennessee’s worst-case scenario for 2025 on his show. According to Pate, a Vols fan friend suggested the team’s floor was an 8-4 record.
Pate disagreed, calling that idea “nonsense.” He pointed out that Tennessee being a consistent Playoff contender is a recent development.
“My friend texts me and says, ‘What if we go 8-4 this year?’” Pate recalled. “I said, ‘Excuse me? That’s the worst? They might have gone 8-4 even with Nico. If you think 8-4 is the worst for Tennessee, you don’t know much about Vols history. It’s only recently that Tennessee has even thought of itself as a Playoff regular.
“You can criticize or praise Josh Heupel, but you have to admit—he rescued the program. Tennessee football was irrelevant for about 15 years.”
The stats back up Pate’s point: from 2008 to 2021, the Vols averaged just over six wins per season, never reaching 10 wins and hitting nine victories only twice.
More critically for Pate’s case—Tennessee is replacing a huge chunk of last year’s production, even without considering the change at quarterback from Iamaleava to Joey Aguilar.
“8-4 isn’t the worst-case,” Pate emphasized. “The Vols’ win total is set at 8.5 right now. A real worst-case? A total collapse like Florida State once had. Maybe not that bad, but missing a bowl game would be your bottom. With or without Nico, Tennessee still had to replace more than 160 offensive line starts, had uncertainty at wide receiver and running back, and was reworking its defense.
“The margin for error is much thinner than people realize. Last season’s Playoff berth doesn’t guarantee a high floor this year. You could still bottom out at four wins. You’re never immune to disaster, even after a big season. I have faith in Josh Heupel, but he had a tough job ahead even if Nico had stayed.”
Currently, BetMGM has Tennessee’s win total listed at 8.5. For those interested, there are several Tennessee-focused betting apps available this offseason.
Under Heupel, the Vols have averaged 10 wins over the past three seasons.
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