The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be entering an offseason defined by sweeping changes and organizational restructuring. After several seasons of falling short of expectations and struggling to keep pace with the National League’s strongest contenders, the front office has decided the time has come to reshape the roster in a significant way. Their actions early in the winter already signal that this won’t be a half-measure; it’s a full-scale retooling aimed at redirecting the franchise’s long-term trajectory.
One of the earliest and clearest indicators of this approach was the club’s decision to move on from veteran starting pitcher Sonny Gray. Gray, who had been signed as a major rotation piece and performed well when healthy, was traded to the Boston Red Sox before many teams even fully settled into their offseason plans.
The timing of the move suggested the Cardinals wanted to make decisive changes quickly instead of gradually tinkering with the roster. And if that trade was the opening act, the organization seems poised to follow it with more major decisions.
Perhaps the most obvious next step involves superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado. For years, Arenado has been viewed as one of the cornerstones of the franchise, a player acquired from Colorado with the expectation that he would help anchor multiple postseason runs. However, with St. Louis transitioning toward a longer-term rebuild, his presence on a large contract complicates matters.
Arenado remains under a massive deal, and because he negotiated a full no-trade clause, he has the power to determine whether he stays or goes. That alone makes the idea of trading him complicated. Even so, the Cardinals appear likely to at least explore what his market might look like, given that moving him could provide both financial flexibility and the opportunity to replenish their prospect depth.
Recently, Patrick McAvoy of St. Louis Cardinals OnSi offered a projection that further highlights the likelihood that Arenado ends up being moved. McAvoy suggested that the Cardinals could ultimately trade Arenado to the Los Angeles Angels, a team that has surfaced in trade rumors involving the star third baseman multiple times over the past several seasons. According to McAvoy, conditions are beginning to align in a way that could finally create an opening for a deal.
McAvoy pointed out that new reports have indicated the Angels are discussing possibilities to buy out Anthony Rendon’s contract. Rendon, who has been limited by injuries and inconsistency since signing his massive deal with Los Angeles, no longer appears to be part of the Angels’ future plans.
With the team looking to cut ties and reset at the position, third base has become an obvious area of need. That alone makes Arenado an intriguing solution. But the connection extends beyond positional fit.
As McAvoy wrote, Arenado is a Southern California native, and the Angels have made it clear in past windows that they have at least had some level of interest in acquiring him. The fact that Arenado grew up in the region could help facilitate his approval of a trade, which is a key element because of his no-trade protection.
If both the Cardinals and Arenado are open to finding a fresh start, and if the Angels are serious about adding a stabilizing veteran presence to their infield, the pieces may finally align for discussions to gain traction.
Despite all of this, nothing has materialized to this point. The Angels have long been viewed as one of the best matches for Arenado, but circumstances never lined up quite well enough to complete a deal in previous offseasons. This year feels different, largely because the Cardinals seem more committed than ever to subtracting from the current roster in order to reshape the future.
St. Louis is no longer in a position to hold on to established players simply because of past expectations. If moving Arenado allows the club to reset financially and gain long-term flexibility, that may outweigh the value he brings in the short term.
Another factor that could accelerate trade talks is St. Louis’ willingness to absorb a sizable portion of Arenado’s remaining contract. Such a move would have been unthinkable when the team first acquired him from Colorado, but in a rebuilding cycle, priorities shift.
If the Cardinals are indeed prepared to carry a significant portion of his salary, this dramatically changes the dynamics of his trade value. It means a team like the Angels would not need to surrender a major prospect haul or take on his full financial obligation — two sticking points that have previously prevented a deal.
Under this type of arrangement, the Angels could potentially land a veteran All-Star at a reduced financial cost while giving up only a modest collection of minor-league talent. From their viewpoint, it would represent a relatively low-risk, high-reward opportunity to strengthen a lineup that continues to search for consistency.
With Shohei Ohtani gone, Mike Trout dealing with recurring injuries, and a roster still struggling to establish an identity, adding a player of Arenado’s pedigree could provide both leadership and stability as they attempt to remain competitive.
For the Cardinals, eating payroll to move a veteran may seem counterintuitive, but it aligns with the broader theme of resetting the franchise’s foundation. Their front office appears focused on clearing future books, creating roster spots for younger talent, and potentially leveraging upcoming seasons as developmental periods.
If Arenado is unlikely to be part of the next contending Cardinals team, this offseason presents an opportunity to maximize his value — even if that means retaining some of his salary to complete a trade.
Altogether, this scenario presents a situation where both organizations could benefit. The Angels would acquire a proven middle-of-the-order presence and elite defender for a relatively low acquisition cost, helping their bid to remain competitive.
The Cardinals would move closer to a full rebuild, gaining flexibility and reducing long-term payroll obligations. And Arenado himself would receive a chance to return to his home region while joining a team looking for veteran leadership.
While nothing is guaranteed, the trajectory of both franchises suggests discussions could intensify as the offseason continues. In a winter expected to bring dramatic change, Arenado’s future may be one of the defining storylines for a Cardinals team committed to reshaping its identity.
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