The Atlanta Braves have made a habit of securing their young core players early in their careers, as seen with Spencer Strider, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley.
While these long-term deals can pay off, they also come with major risks — something evident in Strider and Acuña’s injuries and Harris’ sudden downturn in performance.
When Riley first arrived in 2019, it looked like Atlanta had finally found someone capable of stepping into the void left by Chipper Jones. Though he initially struggled to adjust to major league pitching, his breakout in 2021 energized both the front office and the fan base.
Riley has delivered plenty of highlight moments since then, showing marked improvement in his defense and plate discipline. Still, his performance over the past two seasons hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.
Austin Riley’s performance and injuries the last two seasons has extension with the Braves looking less rosy
Like many members of Atlanta’s lineup, Riley has leveled off a bit during the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Some of that can be chalked up to injuries, while the rest comes from plain underperformance — making it difficult to feel entirely confident about his 10-year, $212 million contract.
From 2021 through 2023, Riley was exceptional, posting a .286/.354/.525 slash line across 478 games. During that stretch, he compiled 18.8 WAR with 104 doubles, 108 home runs, 297 RBI, and a 135 wRC+. He also earned MVP votes and captured two Silver Slugger Awards.
The biggest flaw in his otherwise strong profile has been his plate discipline. His strikeout rate has hovered around 24%, and his walk rate has never topped 8%. Those numbers aren’t unusual for a power bat, but they’re not ideal for one of the team’s highest-paid players.
With seven years remaining on his deal — plus a club option for 2033 — there’s still time for him to live up to the investment.
Across the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Riley has slashed .258/.316/.445 with 46 doubles, 35 home runs, 110 RBI, and a 111 wRC+. The disparity between walks and strikeouts is concerning: 64 walks against 246 strikeouts over 916 plate appearances.
It’s hard to call the contract a success so far given his inconsistency and multiple season-ending injuries. While those injuries aren’t his fault, his absence has been felt.
When healthy and disciplined, Riley remains one of baseball’s premier hitters. There’s every reason to believe he can bounce back, but he’ll need a strong 2026 season to prove to fans that he’s more than just an average player moving forward.
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