If there is going to be a massive, headline-grabbing trade during this offseason, one of the most realistic candidates involved could be Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. Rumors already suggest that the Seattle Mariners are expected to pursue him, and that naturally leads to the big question: What kind of return would Detroit demand to send their star left-hander to Seattle?
This situation resembles a previous winter blockbuster. Back in February 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers traded superstar Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles. The structure of that trade revolved around three major pieces: a competitive balance draft pick, a current top-100 prospect (Joey Ortiz), and a former top-100 prospect (DL Hall). That move set something of a modern framework for dealing away an elite pitcher heading into the final stretch of team control.
However, even if Skubal fits the same general profile—a Cy Young-caliber pitcher nearing free agency—his projected value appears to be higher. According to the Baseball Trade Values model, Skubal’s surplus value sits around $51.6 million.
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To put that into context, Burnes was valued about $20 million lower at the time of his trade. Skubal is younger, left-handed, coming off dominant back-to-back seasons, and is widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in the world. Those factors collectively raise what Detroit could ask for in trade discussions.
And while the player is elite, the situation still resembles a rental. Skubal is on track to enter free agency after the 2026 season, meaning any team that acquires him would likely control him for just one year unless he signs an extension. His future earning power adds another complication—his projected market value could reach an astounding $400 million when he eventually hits free agency. Only a small handful of franchises can even contemplate handing out that type of contract, and realistically, Seattle is not one of them.
Because of that financial limitation, Seattle’s best shot at acquiring Skubal would be to construct a trade that appeals strictly based on prospect capital and controllable young players—not financial maneuvering or exchanging big contracts. It’s very unlikely that the Tigers would bundle Skubal with an unwanted contract like Javier Báez’s in order to offload salary.
Doing so would diminish Skubal’s trade value and reduce the number of teams willing to offer top talent. On the other side, the Mariners won’t want to complicate the deal by pushing Detroit to take on a large contract either—players such as Luis Castillo or even Randy Arozarena would only make negotiations more tangled and potentially raise Detroit’s asking price.
If a trade does happen, it would almost certainly center on young talent: top prospects, promising major-league ready players, or a combination of both. The structure of the Burnes trade offers a rough outline, but because of Skubal’s higher value, Detroit would likely set the price even steeper.
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So, the real discussion becomes identifying what kinds of packages could be considered “fair.” With Skubal’s price tag, expected rental status, and projected future earnings, the trade market will be intense—but three realistic scenarios exist that could match Detroit’s expectations and keep Seattle in the hunt.
3 trade proposals to get Tarik Skubal from the Tigers to the Mariners
Trade 3: A Mid-Rotation Starter and a No. 1 Prospect
In this hypothetical trade scenario, the Seattle Mariners would acquire left-handed starter Tarik Skubal, while the Detroit Tigers would receive two players in return: right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller and shortstop prospect Colt Emerson.
Miller’s 2025 regular season was not as strong as expected, but when the postseason arrived, he rediscovered his form and emerged as Seattle’s most reliable arm. His late-season surge resembled what he did the previous year, when he led the Mariners’ pitching staff with 3.4 rWAR in 2024, proving himself capable of performing like a frontline starter.
At age 27, Miller is still relatively young and, importantly, remains under team control through the 2029 season. That long-term affordability makes him particularly appealing to Detroit, because he could step directly into Skubal’s rotation spot while providing the club with several years of cost-effective production.
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The second player mentioned, Colt Emerson, represents the more significant long-term asset. Widely viewed as Seattle’s top organizational prospect, he also ranks ninth overall in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline. Emerson is considered one of the most polished hitters in the minor leagues and has rapidly evolved into an elite defensive shortstop, potentially Gold Glove caliber. His development has accelerated so quickly that he reached Triple-A during the current season, putting him within reach of a major-league debut in the very near future.
However, despite how appealing the return package looks on paper, several questions make this deal uncertain. Would the Mariners be willing to part with their best prospect, someone seen as a future cornerstone, in exchange for Skubal, who would only be under team control for one remaining season? Conversely, even if Seattle agreed to include Emerson, would Detroit feel comfortable making Miller — a pitcher who has dealt with concerns around his elbow — the central piece of a trade involving their ace? Because of those doubts, the trade feels unlikely for both sides.
Trade 2: An Established Ace and a Mid-Level Prospect
Proposed Trade:
Mariners receive: LHP Tarik Skubal
Tigers receive: RHP Logan Gilbert, 2B Michael Arroyo
In this version of the potential trade, the return heading to Detroit looks more substantial, largely because Logan Gilbert is considered a more accomplished pitcher than Bryce Miller. Gilbert has already established himself as a frontline starter, and his performance data backs that up.
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During the most recent season, his strikeout rate actually finished ever so slightly above Skubal’s—32.3% compared to Skubal’s 32.2%. That small gap may not sound like much, but it highlights Gilbert’s ability to generate swings and misses at an elite level. Additionally, just a season ago, Gilbert paced the entire league in both innings pitched and WHIP, demonstrating durability, efficiency, and the ability to handle a starter’s workload deep into games.
Detroit would also be adding infielder Michael Arroyo, who remains somewhat underrated within prospect rankings. MLB Pipeline currently lists him as the No. 63 prospect in baseball, but some evaluators believe he should be higher. Arroyo excels at getting on base—he has posted an on-base percentage above .400 in each of the past two minor-league seasons, showing strong plate discipline and contact ability.
His lack of home run power at Double-A Arkansas—just two home runs across 56 games—can be partially attributed to the ballpark rather than his skill set. Dickey-Stephens Park, where Arkansas plays, is notorious for suppressing power numbers due to its deep outfield dimensions and heavy air. In a more neutral or hitter-friendly environment, Arroyo’s power could improve.
However, even with Gilbert’s résumé and Arroyo’s promise, the deal arguably benefits Seattle more than Detroit. Despite Gilbert’s talent, he experienced a noticeable decline after returning from an arm-related injury this season, creating some uncertainty about his immediate future. He also comes with limited team control; the Mariners would only retain him for two more seasons before he reaches free agency. That greatly reduces his overall value, especially compared to Skubal’s longer club control and status as a true ace.
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Arroyo, while a good prospect, may not be viewed as a franchise-changing piece. He projects as a solid everyday player rather than a cornerstone asset. For a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber—possibly a two-time Cy Young winner by the time this trade would occur—the Tigers might seek a more premium headliner or a package with more long-term upside.
In summary, Detroit would be getting quality pieces, but Seattle still walks away with the best player in the deal: an established ace at the height of his dominance.
Trade 1: What the Tigers (Probably) Actually Want
In this proposed trade scenario, the Seattle Mariners would acquire left-handed starter Tarik Skubal, while the Detroit Tigers would receive two premium prospects: left-handed pitcher Kade Anderson and outfielder Lazaro Montes.
Industry speculation has been clear about Detroit’s asking price. According to a comment given to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com by an American League executive, the Tigers would only consider moving Skubal if the return package included “two or three Top 100 prospects.” The executive noted that Skubal’s current value places him above pitchers like Corbin Burnes when he was dealt, so the starting point for negotiations would be quite high.
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Under this proposed deal, the Tigers would obtain exactly that level of prospect capital. Both Anderson and Montes rank comfortably within MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 prospects—Anderson at No. 23 and Montes at No. 29—giving Detroit both quality and upside.
Anderson, the Mariners’ most recent first-round draft pick and selected third overall, has the potential to eventually become a frontline starter. Detroit could view him as a possible long-term replacement for Skubal. Montes, meanwhile, is known for massive raw power and could help energize a Tigers lineup that has lacked consistent slugging. His bat could push him to the majors as early as the 2026 season.
For Seattle, the move represents a calculated gamble. Anderson has yet to pitch professionally, and while Montes’ offensive potential has led scouts to compare him to Yordan Alvarez, he also carries more swing-and-miss risk than Alvarez showed in the minors. Still, the Mariners might view this trade as a rare opportunity to land an ace capable of elevating their rotation into championship territory.
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Detroit could still ask for an additional player—someone like Emerson Hancock or Logan Evans—but the foundation of this proposal fits the expectations for a blockbuster deal. And if another club such as the Mets or Red Sox wants to beat this offer, they’d have to come up with something even stronger.
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