The relationship between the St. Louis Cardinals and star third baseman appears to be nearing a definitive and dramatic conclusion. After several seasons together—filled with high expectations but inconsistent results—the partnership has come to a point where both sides seem ready to move on.
According to ESPN insider Jeff Passan, Arenado has emerged as “one player widely expected to be moved” this offseason, and he has reportedly indicated that he is prepared to waive his no-trade clause, a contractual protection that gives him the power to block any trade he does not approve of.
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The simple fact that Arenado is willing to consider lifting that restriction speaks volumes about how far the situation has progressed. It signals that Arenado recognizes the likelihood of a major change in his baseball future.
This development could have enormous ripple effects across Major League Baseball. The winter trade period frequently involves rumors, negotiations, and speculation, but not every offseason features a future Hall-of-Fame-caliber player voluntarily placing himself on the trade market. Arenado represents a potential major domino, the type of move that could reshape not only the Cardinals’ plans but also the competitive landscape for contending teams across the league. When a superstar at a premier position like third base becomes available, organizations looking to push themselves over the top into championship contention take notice.
While Arenado’s level of performance is no longer at the absolute peak of his career—when he was regularly posting Silver Slugger numbers and racking up accolades—his résumé remains stunning. Throughout a brilliant career, Arenado has been selected to eight All-Star Games and has earned 10 Gold Gloves, an unbelievable total that cements his legacy as one of the greatest defensive third basemen of his generation—and arguably one of the best to ever play the position.
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His outstanding glove work has been his calling card from the beginning, but at his height, he paired that elite defense with significant power at the plate. In Colorado, he was a yearly lock for 30-plus home runs, 100-plus RBIs, and highlight-reel defensive plays.
However, 2025 was a different story. It was arguably the most challenging season of Arenado’s professional life. His numbers slipped noticeably compared to his prime. He appeared in 107 games, hit 12 home runs, produced a .666 OPS, and finished the season at 1.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)—still a respectable figure, especially when considering how much of that value stemmed from his glove rather than his bat.
Even with his offensive struggles, Arenado continued to play defense at an exceptional level. His instincts, fast reactions, strong throwing arm, and defensive intelligence allow him to remain one of the most reliable third basemen in MLB, even as age naturally reduces the explosiveness he displayed earlier in his career.
Arenado has played the past five seasons in St. Louis, arriving in one of the most talked-about transactions of the decade when the Cardinals acquired him from the Colorado Rockies. At the time, the organization believed it was committing to a superstar who would anchor the lineup and help propel the franchise back to consistent deep postseason runs.
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Instead, the Cardinals experienced a mix of team inconsistency, roster underperformance, and disappointing standings finishes. Over the course of his time in St. Louis, Arenado’s home run totals have decreased every year—a drop from 34, to 30, to 26, then sliding to 16, and finally landing at just 12 this past season. The general downward trend suggests either natural aging, injuries that impacted performance, or adjustments by opposing pitchers that he has not consistently countered.
In 2025, his batting average fell to .237, the lowest mark of his entire career. For a hitter who once regularly hovered in the .290 range and flirted with .300 at his peak, that statistic reflects a pronounced decline. Offensive slumps can happen in short bursts, but when the downturn extends multiple seasons, evaluators begin to question whether the decline is temporary or permanent.
All of this creates a challenging question for front offices evaluating Arenado as a trade candidate: what is he worth?
His value is surprisingly complicated. On one side of the evaluation, Arenado remains an extremely skilled defender and a seasoned professional with extensive big-game experience. His defensive metrics, leadership, and steadying influence in the clubhouse make him attractive to teams competing for playoff spots or looking for a veteran presence to stabilize their infield. Many teams—especially those lacking strong defensive play at third base—could view Arenado as a perfect complement to a young or developing roster.
But concerns exist as well. Arenado is not the hitter he used to be. He turns 35 in April, a stage of a baseball career when very few position players maintain star-level power or durability. He is not likely to re-emerge as a 30-home-run hitter. His contract, age, and declining offensive production naturally reduce his trade value. Acquiring him requires a franchise to believe that (1) his defense alone is worth the investment, (2) he will rebound offensively to some degree, or (3) his experience and leadership justify the cost even if his bat remains average.
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Thus, any team interested in Arenado must weigh upside vs. risk. In a best-case scenario, Arenado provides elite defense, league-average offense, and steady clubhouse leadership—which could help elevate a playoff-capable roster. In a worst-case scenario, he becomes an expensive aging infielder whose bat continues to fade.
Because of those dynamics, the only organizations realistically positioned to pursue Arenado are larger-market contenders, teams that can absorb his contract and are motivated by a short-term championship window. Smaller-market clubs typically cannot afford to commit significant payroll to a player whose production may not fully justify the cost, especially when younger and cheaper alternatives exist.
One team that has already been speculated about is the Seattle Mariners, particularly if they do not bring back Eugenio Suárez as their starting third baseman. Seattle has a competitive young roster, strong pitching, and a desire to push deeper into the postseason. In that environment, Arenado’s defensive anchors and playoff-tested experience could be highly valuable. No team has been formally linked as having active negotiations, but Seattle fits the profile of a destination that makes sense.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, appear to be in a phase where difficult decisions are unavoidable. Their roster has not matched their historical competitive standards, and trading Arenado—even though it would be emotionally taxing for fans—may allow them to retool with younger players, prospects, or salary flexibility. St. Louis has traditionally prided itself on consistency and stability, but keeping Arenado simply because of name recognition or loyalty isn’t a strategy that aligns with their future needs.
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The reality is that while Arenado still has meaningful strengths, he is no longer the type of player a franchise builds entirely around. Now he resembles a final piece, someone who can complement an already well-constructed roster, rather than being the cornerstone of a rebuild. For teams on the cusp of playoff contention, that distinction matters.
If the reporting is accurate—and Passan is one of the most reliable insiders in the sport—then a trade feels inevitable. Arenado’s willingness to waive his no-trade clause reinforces that the wheels are already in motion behind the scenes. The expectation is not if he gets traded, but where he will go and how soon the deal will materialize.
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