When surveying the current landscape of the National League West, one team quietly stands out as the potential swing factor that could reshape the division’s balance of power: the Arizona Diamondbacks.
At the top, the Los Angeles Dodgers remain the clear standard-bearer. Barring an unforeseen collapse or an unprecedented wave of injuries, Los Angeles is widely expected to cruise into the postseason once again. Their depth, star power, and financial muscle make them the safest bet in the division, if not the entire league.
Right behind them, at least on paper, sit the San Diego Padres. San Diego still belongs in the Dodgers’ general neighborhood, but that status comes with a large asterisk. Their ceiling depends heavily on whether they can assemble a reliable starting rotation next season—something that, as things stand now, is far from guaranteed.
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Then there are the Colorado Rockies, who continue to feel like a franchise stuck in neutral. Organizational instability and questionable leadership decisions have left them lagging well behind their divisional rivals. Playing home games at altitude already creates unique challenges, particularly for pitching, and until the Rockies demonstrate a coherent long-term vision that can overcome those hurdles, they appear destined to remain spectators rather than contenders in the NL West race.
The San Francisco Giants occupy a murkier middle ground. There is intrigue here, but also uncertainty. With a first-year big-league manager stepping into the dugout after coaching at the collegiate level, the Giants are venturing into something of an experiment.
That doesn’t mean failure is inevitable, but it does make it difficult to confidently project a return to sustained success. Climbing back above the .500 mark in 2026 will require not only player performance but also rapid adaptation at the managerial level, and that is a lot to ask in a division this competitive.
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All of that context funnels attention back to Arizona. Just two seasons removed from a surprise run to the World Series, the Diamondbacks have since fallen short of the playoffs in consecutive years. That recent history creates a strange duality: they are both proven capable of contending and frustratingly inconsistent.
On one hand, their offense remains among the most dangerous in the National League, capable of putting pressure on opposing pitchers night after night. On the other, their rotation has been a persistent weak spot, undermined further by injuries and a lack of top-end certainty.
Much of the optimism around Arizona’s pitching hinges on the eventual return of Corbin Burnes from elbow surgery. If Burnes comes back healthy and close to form, he immediately elevates the staff. Until then, however, the Diamondbacks are forced to bridge the gap with depth moves rather than headline acquisitions.
Complicating matters even more is the ongoing conversation around Ketel Marte, a perennial MVP-caliber talent whose name has surfaced in trade rumors. Moving a player of Marte’s stature would signal a partial reset, yet Arizona’s actions suggest anything but a rebuild.
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Instead, the Diamondbacks have doubled down on a win-now mindset. Their free-agent approach reflects a front office that still believes this roster can compete immediately, even if the path is narrow.
To stabilize the rotation, Arizona added Michael Soroka on a one-year deal, a low-risk, high-upside move for a pitcher still trying to recapture his earlier form. They also committed two years to Merrill Kelly, betting on reliability and familiarity to soak up innings and provide a steady presence behind the front-line arms.
These signings may not grab national headlines, but they are revealing. Arizona is not standing pat, nor are they punting on the present. They are actively reinforcing areas of weakness, even if the fixes are incremental rather than transformative. In a division where the margin between a wild-card spot and missing October entirely can be razor-thin, those marginal gains matter.
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Ironically, these same moves cast an even harsher spotlight on San Diego. When measured against Arizona’s deliberate efforts to patch holes, the Padres’ rotation looks increasingly thin. While San Diego still boasts star position players and plenty of offensive firepower, pitching wins divisions, and right now, their staff appears alarmingly fragile. Compared to the Diamondbacks’ willingness to stockpile arms and hedge against uncertainty, the Padres feel exposed.
In that sense, Arizona’s offseason has quietly clarified the NL West hierarchy. The Dodgers remain the juggernaut. The Padres have name recognition but glaring vulnerabilities. The Giants are intriguing yet unproven. The Rockies are searching for direction. And the Diamondbacks, despite their flaws, may be the one team capable of disrupting expectations if things break their way.
Whether that disruption leads to a playoff berth or simply another near-miss remains to be seen. Much will depend on health, internal development, and the resolution of the Marte situation. Still, Arizona has positioned itself as more than an afterthought. In a division dominated by star-studded rosters and big-market narratives, the Diamondbacks have embraced the role of the unpredictable variable—the team that could tilt the standings in ways no preseason projection fully captures.
Padres have second-worst rotation in NL West after Diamondbacks sign Merrill Kelly
The one small consolation for the San Diego Padres is that, as long as the Colorado Rockies exist, San Diego is unlikely to finish with the outright worst starting rotation in the National League West.
Even so, it’s hardly reassuring that the Padres are being discussed in the same tier as Colorado rather than alongside the division’s gold standard, the Los Angeles Dodgers. For a franchise with postseason aspirations and a history of aggressive roster building, that comparison stings.
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At the top of the Padres’ rotation, Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta provide competence and experience, but they don’t inspire fear across the Senior Circuit. As currently constructed, that duo alone is not enough to keep pace with the elite contenders. San Diego doesn’t need to assemble a rotation overflowing with superstars, but it does need more stability and upside than it currently has.
Realistically, the Padres aren’t expected to rival a group that can roll out arms such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, or Roki Sasaki. Matching that level of star power isn’t a requirement. What San Diego truly needs is a dependable third starter who can shoulder innings, limit damage, and prevent the rotation from unraveling when injuries or inconsistency strike.
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Finding that kind of pitcher, however, is becoming increasingly challenging. Each passing week sees another viable arm come off the board, shrinking the pool of realistic options. Kelly represented an ideal fit — a pitcher capable of filling a mid-rotation role without commanding a massive, franchise-altering contract. If the Padres are priced out of pursuing premium targets such as Framber Valdez or Tarik Skubal, then operating in that middle tier is not just sensible, but necessary.
There are still names on the market who align with that strategy, including Zac Gallen, Tyler Mahle, and Zack Littell. Yet even that segment of the market is tightening quickly. As contracts continue to escalate — with mid-rotation arms now approaching or surpassing $20 million annually — San Diego risks being squeezed out altogether once supply becomes scarce.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is almost certainly exploring every possible avenue, but the math is getting tougher by the day. Between financial limitations and a rapidly thinning market, it’s becoming increasingly hard to envision the Padres fully addressing all of their rotation concerns in a single offseason.
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