For most of the season, Ryan Helsley has been viewed as one of the Cardinals’ top trade assets—and with good reason. Coming off a standout year with 49 saves, the offseason seemed like the ideal time to deal him to a contender and maximize his trade value.
This isn’t another column arguing that the Cardinals should have moved Helsley—you’ve heard that from me enough already. Instead, I want to highlight something interesting now that we’re deeper into the season.
Helsley locked down the save in Game 1 of yesterday’s doubleheader with a clean, three-batter inning. Still, he’s had a rough go of it in June. While he’s racked up 14 saves, his ERA sits at 3.81. That’s not terrible, but it’s a bit elevated for a closer.
As a result, Helsley’s trade value may have taken a hit. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable, and it was always reasonable to expect some regression from him this season.
That said, the Cardinals could still move him and get a decent return. But he no longer stands as their most valuable trade piece. That distinction now belongs to Phil Maton.
Maton tossed a scoreless eighth in the first game of the doubleheader and has lowered his ERA to 1.98 on the year.
He might not have Helsley’s All-Star resume, but we’ve seen what rental high-leverage relievers can fetch at the deadline. If Maton keeps pitching like this, he could command a hefty return.
At this point, he may even net more in a trade than Helsley would. So it might make more sense for the Cardinals to hang on to Helsley and capitalize on Maton’s value instead. The return could help fortify their farm system, particularly on the pitching side.
That’s not to say Helsley has no value—but right now, Maton’s is clearly higher.
Being five games above .500 isn’t enough to justify standing pat. The Cardinals should still be looking to sell to some degree, and trading Maton would be a smart move.
The ideal window to trade Helsley has likely closed. While he can still bring something back, his peak value has already dipped.
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