Heading into 2025, the Seattle Mariners weren’t in desperate need of another top-tier starting pitcher. But circumstances have shifted, and sometimes it’s smart to seize an opportunity when it presents itself.
In other words, if the Pittsburgh Pirates show even the slightest willingness to consider trading Him, the Mariners should absolutely be in the mix.
While this scenario is purely hypothetical for now, it’s surprisingly difficult to defend the Pirates keeping the reigning 2024 National League Rookie of the Year. The franchise has only reached the postseason three times since 1992 and is off to a disastrous 15-33 start this year. Combine that with their status as a small-market club and a well-known reluctance to spend under owner Bob Nutting, and the idea of a massive contract extension for Skenes seems far-fetched.
As ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted on The Pat McAfee Show last week, “Teams are going to inquire about Paul Skenes at the deadline this year. I don’t think he gets traded, but there’s a strong case to be made that moving him while his value is sky-high could be in the Pirates’ best interest.”
Not many teams have the prospect capital to afford Paul Skenes, but the Mariners are an exception
Saying Paul Skenes has significant trade value doesn’t quite capture the full picture. He’s off to a phenomenal start in his MLB career, posting a 2.12 ERA over his first 33 appearances and consistently impressing in advanced metrics. At just under 23 years old, he won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2027, and free agency isn’t on the horizon until after the 2029 season.
While Skenes will start commanding serious money once arbitration kicks in, he’s still expected to deliver tremendous surplus value. According to Baseball Trade Values, that number sits at $94.8 million — the kind of figure you’d expect in a blockbuster deal reminiscent of the Herschel Walker trade.
Paul Skenes Incinerating Bryce Harper.
99, 99, 100 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/XKFcIWsCmu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 18, 2025
That is, of course, assuming the Pirates would entertain a trade for Skenes at anything close to fair value — a scenario that’s hard to imagine. Even as Pittsburgh continues to pile up losses, the team has every reason to demand a significant return. Settling for anything less would be a misstep, arguably even worse than the current state of things in Pittsburgh.
That said, if any team could pull off such a deal, it might be the Mariners. Seattle boasts a deep farm system, with nine players ranked in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects. They also hold the third overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, along with the largest bonus pool — giving them unique leverage.
Beyond just having the assets, the Mariners have a long-term need in their rotation. Luis Castillo is past his prime, while Logan Gilbert (contracted through 2027) and George Kirby (through 2028) have limited team control remaining. Add in that all three — along with Bryce Miller — are currently on the injured list, and acquiring Skenes would bolster their World Series hopes now and solidify their future rotation.
Here’s a proposed deal:
Mariners receive:
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RHP Paul Skenes
Pirates receive:
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RHP Bryce Miller
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SS Colt Emerson
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C Harry Ford
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RHP/LHP Jurrangelo Cijntje
Bringing in Skenes would create a six-man rotation in Seattle that includes Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Woo, and Skenes — perhaps more depth than needed. So moving Miller makes strategic sense. While he’s sidelined with a minor elbow issue, Miller led Mariners pitchers with 3.4 rWAR last season and remains under team control through 2029. He could be a foundational piece for Pittsburgh’s pitching staff.
Emerson, Ford, and Cijntje are Seattle’s No. 1, No. 5, and No. 8 prospects per MLB Pipeline, and all are currently in the top 100 league-wide. They’re also trending upward — Ford is performing well in Triple-A, Emerson boasts a .998 OPS in May at High-A, and Cijntje has a 1.69 ERA in his last three outings.
Colt Emerson goes oppo 🌮
The @Mariners' top-ranked prospect caps a three-hit performance with his third homer of the season for the High-A @EverettAquaSox: pic.twitter.com/1zQ0steOwd
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 19, 2025
This is a hefty price for Seattle to pay, but it might represent their best-case scenario. Skenes is an upgrade over Miller, and the other prospects, while promising, are somewhat blocked: Ford by Cal Raleigh, Emerson by Cole Young, and Cijntje’s left-handed stuff isn’t nearly as effective as his right-handed pitching.
Realistically, there’s only a slim chance the Pirates move Skenes during the season — maybe one in a million. But if Pittsburgh does start taking calls, the Mariners should absolutely be on the line.
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