The outlook for Auburn isn’t promising as they head to Georgia on Saturday. They will arrive in Athens having suffered seven consecutive losses to their longtime rival. For context, the last time the Tigers defeated the Bulldogs, Gus Malzahn was seeking a raise. The current losing streak against Power 5 schools stands at five games.
Breaking these streaks would require an upset as 23-point underdogs against a Georgia team that is unhappy with their recent performance in Tuscaloosa.
Additionally, Georgia is on a 26-game home winning streak and hasn’t experienced back-to-back losses since 2016, which was Kirby Smart’s first year as head coach, making the odds quite challenging for the 2:30 p.m. CT game at Sanford Stadium.
Auburn (2-3, 0-2 SEC) is a 23-point underdog this year, after making headlines last season when they were 14.5-point underdogs at home against then-No. 1 Georgia. They held a lead over the Bulldogs into the third quarter and were tied late in the game until a 40-yard touchdown catch by Brock Bowers gave Georgia a 27-20 victory.
So, what will it take for Auburn to pose a real challenge to Georgia or possibly achieve an upset?
Best case for Auburn: No freebees, Georgia has hangover
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze believes his team is close to turning things around. He suggests that with a few adjustments, this 2-3 squad could easily be 5-0 heading into a significant rivalry matchup that would attract national attention.
There are some statistics that support his claim, but one number strongly contradicts it. On the positive side, Auburn boasts the nation’s 23rd-ranked total offense, averaging 466.0 yards per game. The Tigers are a significant threat for big plays, ranking 5th in plays of 20 or more yards (34) and 1st in plays of 40 or more yards (12).
However, the downside is stark: Auburn ranks 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in turnovers lost (15) and is last in turnover margin (-11).
While it’s not just a matter of eliminating those 15 turnovers to ensure an undefeated season, it’s difficult to overlook the critical mistakes made in their three losses. All nine interceptions occurred during those games, with the most notable being the Pick 6 in last week’s 27-21 defeat against Oklahoma.
Auburn needs to curb these errors.
The statistics illustrate how Auburn transitions from being 23rd in yards per game to 88th in points per drive (1.85), according to bcftoys.com.
This offense will be up against a Georgia defense that did not allow a touchdown in its first three games but gave up 41 points to Alabama last week.
With all due respect, Auburn lacks the dynamic quarterback play that significantly challenged the Bulldogs, meaning they’ll need to avoid mistakes to have any chance.
Fortunately for Auburn, Georgia hasn’t been particularly adept at forcing turnovers, with just two interceptions in four games—one of which was a tipped pass against Alabama last week.
Worst case scenario: Status quo
Georgia has a greater level of talent and superior coaching compared to its opponent. If they perform as anticipated, this college football matchup is unlikely to be very exciting, and Auburn will extend its losing streak heading into their bye week.
Score prediction: Georgia 44, Auburn 9
“This has the potential to be a blowout, as the preseason No. 1 team is likely to come out fiercely after a narrow defeat. Auburn may score a few significant plays, but they won’t be able to keep up with Georgia for a full four quarters—at least not at this point.”
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