Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made it clear that improving the starting rotation is a top priority. Most talk has centered on Boston’s pursuit of a No. 2 starter to slot behind ace Garrett Crochet. However, one longtime Red Sox insider believes the club may already have a strong No. 3 starter in-house — if Breslow makes a bold and potentially divisive move.
During the 2023–24 offseason, shortly after taking over, Breslow signed right-hander Lucas Giolito — the former Nationals 2016 first-round pick — to a two-year, $38.5 million contract. The partnership got off to a rocky start. Giolito injured his elbow during his first spring training outing and needed surgery, ending his season before it began.
Trying to bounce back in 2025, he once again left his spring debut, this time due to a hamstring issue. Then, late this past September, he suffered another elbow injury. Although not as serious, it prevented him from pitching in the AL Wild Card Series, which Boston lost to the Yankees, and would have sidelined him for the entire postseason if they had advanced.
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Despite the setbacks, Giolito delivered a strong 2025 season, posting a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts. Now he is expected to decline his mutual option for 2026 — worth $19 million — and reenter free agency.
Breslow has an option: he can extend Giolito a qualifying offer. Doing so not only ensures Boston receives draft-pick compensation if Giolito signs elsewhere, but it could also discourage other clubs from pursuing him. Veteran reporter Sean McAdam, speaking on the Fenway Rundown podcast, believes Boston should go ahead and issue the offer.
A qualifying offer is a one-year contract at a salary predetermined by the MLB collective bargaining agreement and can only be extended to eligible free agents — players who spent the full season with the team and who have never previously received such an offer.
This year, the qualifying offer is valued at $22.025 million. For Giolito, that would amount to roughly a $3 million increase over the mutual option.
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“I think they should give it to him,” McAdam said, dismissing concerns that paying Giolito that much would prevent Boston from signing the No. 2 starter they need. He argued the team can afford Giolito as a No. 3 or even No. 4 starter and believes Boston will fill the No. 2 slot via trade.
He emphasized that last season taught the team how vital starting pitching depth is over a 162-game schedule — and the Red Sox simply didn’t have enough.
Historically, only about 10% of players offered a qualifying offer accept it. If Giolito turns it down, Boston — having surpassed the luxury tax threshold — would receive a compensatory pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next year’s draft.
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The club previously benefitted from this system in 2022, when Eduardo Rodriguez declined his qualifying offer and signed with Detroit. Boston received the 79th pick that year, ultimately selecting high-school outfielder Roman Anthony.
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